Unfortunately, I don't see much hope for progress while Bush, Sharon and, especially, Arafat remain in power.

If Kerry wins in November, we may have a U.S. administration that is willing to pave the way to peace. The two presidents who made real progress in achieving Middle East peace have both been Democrats. Jimmy Carter brokered the peace between Egypt and Israel and Bill Clinton brokered the peace between Jordan and Israel and actually came close with the Palestinians and Israel.

As anyone who follows Israeli politics knows, Sharon won't be around for long. Due to various scandals, his approval rating has sunk to historic lows and he's coming under increasing pressure to resign. It is very doubtful that he'll survive the looming power struggle from within his own Likud Party.

The kind of leader the Israelis elect to replace Sharon will be, to a very large extent, dependent on the Palestinians. When the Palestinians are not committing and supporting terrorism, and show that they are open to peaceful negotitians, the Israelis elect peace makers like Rabin, Perez and Barak. In times of terror, the Israelis get scared and elect tough guys like Netanyahu and Sharon.

A Palestinian leader must emerge who is prepared to work toward peace, who is prepared to keep working toward peace when less than 100% of Palestinian demands are not met, who is prepared to rein in the terrorists and who is ready to actually prepare his people for peace, something that Arafat never did during the hopeful negotiations of the 1990s. One thing is certain, as long as Palestinians are committing terrorism, Israel, as would any government in the world, will react punitively. Clearly, Arafat has proven throughout his career that he is not the leader who will lead the Palestinians to peace.