The Confederacy, (like Germany in WWI & WWII & Japan in WWII) cannot win by defense. Putting up a strong defense is a challenge, but no threat, to their powerful and resolute neighbours. The stronger power can sit back and prepare whilst the weaker power is denied this luxury. Even perfect defenses will fall to blockade, famine and pestilence.

Economically the odds are always in favour of the North and they improve as each month passes.

Short, Sharp, Demoralising and primarily Victorious War is the only real option open to a weak state fighting a powerful antagonist. Time is on the side of the rich.

One ATL that might bring on a Confederate victory would be to ensure that Lincoln never gets to political ascendancy. Lack of resolution in maintaining the Union might have a far more telling affect on the Norths desire to expend time, effort and resources pursuing their cause than all the resistance that the Confederacy could mount.

AndyG