I was the booking sec for a well established - to say the least! - folk club in UK for a year or so until recently. Our policy is to offer a fairly low guarantee against 80 - 100% of the door - the more confident we felt about a artist pulling in the crowds (or sometimes the further they had to travel) the higher the guarantee - we have had the best of both worlds by following this approach - if the artist pulls the crowds the both us and them do well - if they don't our risk is minimised and they at least know their expenses (and a bit more usually) are covered Almost always we all go home happy!
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sj