back in the 70s & 80s I worked in the Australian Bureau of Meteorology library & remember an overseas study that noted forecasts are not wrong as often as folk think they are for 2 reasons. We don't listen properly & I still miss weather reports on the radio - capital city temperatures are given in a certain order & my attention wanders & returns after the Sydney figures are finished! Today I have 2 bookmarks - Sydney Observations & Sydney Forecast & don't often get rained upon - when I check them out before going out. Second reason is forecast areas are large & just because your suburb or part of a suburb didn't get rain does not make the forecast wrong. I also had a great collection of weather cartoons & sayings & kept this one on my wall - THE WEATHERMAN IS RIGHT 80% OF THE TIME, IT'S JUST THE WEATHER THAT'S WRONG. One of my forecaster colleagues said the average was really 84%, dunno what it is now. sandra The accuracy of weather forecasts for Melbourne, Australia weather-climate.com/ForecastAccuracyMelbourne29June2007.pdf by H Stern - An analysis of the accuracy, and trends in the accuracy, of medium range weather forecasts for Melbourne, Australia, is presented. The analysis shows that skill is evident in forecasts of temperature, rainfall, and qualitative descriptions of expected weather out to seven days in advance. The analysis also demonstrates the existence of a long-term trend in the accuracy of the forecasts. For example, Day-3 forecasts of minimum temperature in recent years (average error ~ 1.6°C) are as skilful as Day-1 forecasts of minimum temperature were in the 1960s and 1970s, whilst Day-4 forecasts of maximum temperature in recent years (average error ~ 2.0°C) are more skilful than Day-1 forecasts of maximum temperature were in the 1960s and 1970s. It is suggested that this trend may be largely attributed to a combination of: (a) Enhancements in the description of the atmosphere's initial state, provided by remote sensing and other observational technologies, (b) Advances in broad scale Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP), and, (c) Careful succession planning and good organisational management.
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