Your friend is wrong, Richard. Weather forecasting is more accurate than ever before because of computers and satellites.

That said, most of the energy goes into forecasting things that are dangerous. Meteorologists are more interested in tracking violent storms, flooding and blizzards than in telling you whether there will be ordinary rain a week from now.

If I were going to a festival in the British Isles, I would pack an assortment of clothes so that I could layer things. The further north the festival, the warmer the clothes.