Hurricane Floyd Discussion Number 31 Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on September 15, 1999

The most recent data relayed from Air Force reconnaissance indicates the eye is elliptical...a minimum central pressure of 935 mb and a maximum flight-level wind of 134 kt...which supports maintaining the initial intensity of 120 kt. The latest radar and satellite imagery suggests that a new eyewall may be forming. Fluctuations in strength are likely...but since Floyd is likely to cross portions of the Gulf Stream during the next day or so it should maintain its current intensity prior to Landfall.

The latest recon fixes show that Floyd is now moving north- northwestward and is moving a bit faster...with the initial motion estimate now 335/13 kt. The mid- to upper-level trough over The Eastern U.S. Will impart a more northerly heading later today. A shortwave trough seen in water vapor imagery moving southward over the North Plains will turn...and accelerate...the hurricane on a more north-northeastward...then northeast track by 36 hrs. Thus the nhc forecast shows a turn toward the north and North- Northeast...then northeast by the end of the period. The official forecast track is in good agreement with the nogaps...but a little faster...and is in the middle of the objective guidance.

Based on the new forecast track...and coordination with the local NWS offices...a tropical storm watch will be issued from Chincoteague Virginia to Cape Henlopen delware.

The NOAA buoy 41010 reached A Peak wind of 70 kt...with gusts to 85 kt...and seas to 54 ft. The winds are probably low Given the high sea states. The buoy is now in the eye and the pressure is 938.8 mb. The most recent observation from Daytona Beach indicates 35 kt sustained with gusts to 52 kt. Wind data from the NWS Melbourne wsr-wind 88d radar indicates 64 kt winds aob 1500 ft. The hurricane warnings will remain unchanged for the Florida east coast.

The NOAA buoy at Grays Reef off the Georgia is already reporting sustained tropical storm force winds while NOAA buoy 41004 near edisto south Carolina is reporting tropical storm force wind gusts and seas to 23 ft. All preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion in the hurricane warning area.

Guiney

forecast positions and max winds initial 15/0900z 28.8n 78.8w 120 kts 12hr vt 15/1800z 30.5n 79.2w 120 kts 24hr vt 16/0600z 33.2n 79.1w 120 kts 36hr vt 16/1800z 36.3n 78.0w 65 kts...inland 48hr vt 17/0600z 40.0n 75.0w 55 kts...inland 72hr vt 18/0600z 47.5n 67.0w 45 kts...inland

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