Well, I've read through the above oil-fired account of what is going on. The Sudanese people I have talked to recently(quite a few) make an equally crude one-issue analysis, but it is quite different. They describe the Sudanese situation as a racial assault by Arab northeners against "African" (or, as we might say"black") southerners, I dont know much of the history of this, but the current results are horrendous.
    I get a very interesting and direct view of global conflicts here in Stoke, England, as I do musical work with refugees . So, for example, a few years ago a lot of Afghans were making it as far as England, fleeing from the Taliban and other local feuding. Following the American entry into Afghanistan, the situation settled down, and hardly any Afghan refugees arrived. The same happened after the Yanks and Brits went into Iraq last year. Till then, the largest numbers of refugees arriving in Stoke were Iraqis (mainly. but not exclusively, Kurdish). After the Anericans took over, the supply of refugees arriving here dried up, following the Afghhan pattern. It is easy to imagine that the situation in Iraq is terrible, if you take your picture from the BBC, the Guardian, or the anti-Bush media. The number of refugees suggests the opposite: that the situation, though hardly stable and peaceful, is infinitely less dangerous to the man in the street than in Saddam's time.
    Currently in Stoke, the people who are arriving in greatest numbers are from Somalia and Sudan. An intereting barometer of world politics can be observed in the Newcastle-under-Lyme Barracks Band, which goes out for the carnival every May, and for the Christmas lights turn-on every November.. last year, as for many years, Kurds were the largest non-English group among the drummers, with Zimbabwe second. (Only one Afghan, in contrast to previous years when there were more). This year, no Afghans, and more Sudan and Somali drummers are appearing, and also Congolese people. Another interesting change, which I feel may indicate something in the wind, is a sudden increase in the number of people getting out of Iran(they tend to be of the progressive,educated, secularist tendency, as far as I can judge).I presume the religious fundamentalists are tightening the screw there a bit in Iran, having observed what has happened to their eastern and western neighbours who may both start to elect governments shortly.
   WEll, someone in an earlier post suggested writing from what we know about. This is my own personal experience of these questions.