I think there's a wee bit of illiberal bias there...

There's an interesting little piece reprinted in a secton of today's Guardian about a mathematical model trying to identify the process by which you get a situation where the same sort of people vote opposite ways according to whether the part of the country they are living in tends to go one way or the other:
Regarding Henry - "Voters look to their neighbours to determine their decision. John Allen Paulos explains why a few swing states of borderline electors will settle the US presidency"

Of course something that could skew things a bit is that for a lot of people, increasingly, the neighbours who count might not be the ones who live next door, but the one's they regularly run into on the Internet, for example here...