First, I don't a poll taken so soon after the GOP convention with all its attendant free publicity has much validity.

Second, polls only reflect what the outcome would be if all the people surveyed actually voted.

The curious thing about this year's electorate is that those who like GWB don't like him with anything near the intensity of those who dislike him. And I firmly believe that this intense-dislike factor will result in more anti-Bush than pro-Bush folks actually going to the polls and voting.

I don't believe it's enough of a factor to overcome an 11% Bush lead in the polls, but if that lead shrinks to around 5% by election day, Kerry will win.