DougR,

(1) As many have pointed out, national polls are meaningless because as we saw in 2000, the national percentages don't elect a president.

(2) In the battleground states polls, Kerry is in the lead, but a slim lead. Still, it translates to a commanding victory in the electoral college if he holds onto it.

(3) Conservative estimates (not the estimates of conservatives) are that Kerry HAS lost about 4-7 points in polls with margins of error around 4 points. This probably reflects a real fluctuation, but it doesn't necessarily represent a trend. We are seeing "post convention bounce" of a few points for Bush, which had to come from somewhere, and with so few undecideds it all came from Kerry. Those bounces are rarely long-term effects.

So at worst, we have Kerry losing 5 points in polls with a margin of error of 4. Would you really consider that a reliable trend to say "he is sinking?" I don't.

Obviously, he has to shore up his support, but he isn't losing large numbers of supporters

(4) there is no such word as "misfacts," but then you knew that, you miscreant :-)