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Annenberg Public Policy Center 1
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
DATE: October 15, 2004
CONTACT: Adam Clymer at 202-879-6757 or 202 549-7161 (cell)
VISIT: www.naes04.org
Service Men and Women Upbeat on Bush, War In Iraq,
Economy and Intend To Vote, Annenberg Data Show
America's military service men and women and their families are convinced that the country is going in the right direction, like George W. Bush much more than the civilian population does,
support the war in Iraq more strongly and are more positive about the economy, the University of Pennsylvania's National Annenberg Election Survey shows.
From September 22 through October 5, Annenberg polled 655 adults who have either served on active duty between February and October or who were family members of those who served but were not available to be interviewed. Their answers were compared to the responses of 2,436
adults polled nationally from September 27 through October 3.
The survey did not ask the voting preference of the respondents because a 1948 statute prohibits polling members of the armed services about whom they intend to vote for.
The Pentagon is making intense efforts to get troops on active duty to vote this year, and 94 percent of the military sample said they intended to vote in the presidential election, compared to
85 percent of the civilian population. Eighty-nine percent of the military sample said they were registered, compared to 82 percent of the general population. Most of the polling was conducted
before registration deadlines had passed, Seventy-seven percent of the military sample said they had learned enough about the candidates and the issues to cast an informed vote, compared to 65
percent of the general population.
But at the same time, reflecting the non-political tradition of the American military, 55 percent said it would be inappropriate to ask someone of equal rank to vote for a Presidential candidate.
Junior enlisted personnel disagreed; 52 percent said it would be appropriate.
Whether they urge anyone to vote for him or not, a variety of measures showed that they preferred Bush to John Kerry. Sixty-nine percent had a favorable opinion of Bush and 23 percent
an unfavorable opinion. But only 29 percent had a favorable opinion of Kerry, while 54 percent
were unfavorable. (Bush and Kerry both had small favorable balances in the general population.)
Annenberg Public Policy Center 2
On particular traits, the military sample gave Bush an advantage on caring, leadership, sharing
their values, knowledge, consistency and optimism. They did consider Bush more stubborn.
When asked whom they would trust more to handle the responsibility of commander-in-chief, 69
percent of the military sample preferred Bush to 24 percent for Kerry. The civilian group also
preferred Bush, but by only a 50 to 41 percent majority.
When asked if the country was "going in the right direction" or was "seriously off on the wrong
track," 64 percent of the military sample said "right track" and 31 percent said "wrong direction."
In the general population a majority said "wrong track"; 55 percent took that view compared to
37 percent who said "right direction."
On all four of these measures, there were almost no differences between regular military
respondents and those who served in the guard and reserves. Family members were less
supportive of Bush than their active duty relatives. Families of guard and reserve members were
the least supportive, but even in that last group narrow majorities took his side. There was little
difference based on the rank of service members, although commissioned officers and NCOs and
their families were slightly more supportive than junior enlisted members and their families.
When it came to the war in Iraq, 64 percent of the military sample said the situation had been
worth going to war over, while 32 percent said it had not. Of those who served in Iraq,
Afghanistan or nearby, a smaller share, only 55 percent, said the war had been worth it; 40
percent said it had not. In the general population, 45 percent said the war had been worth it and
51 percent said it had not.
The military sample was also asked what was the most important reason why the United States
had gone to war in Iraq. They were offered six choices, and 29 percent said the most important
reason was "removing Saddam Hussein from power." Twenty-three percent said "because Iraq
was helping terrorists." Fifteen percent said because "Iraq had weapons of mass destruction."
Thirteen percent said "to bring stability to the Middle East." Eleven percent said "to gain control
of Iraqi oil." Six percent said "to bring democracy to Iraq."
The military sample also felt, narrowly, that the war in Iraq had reduced the risk of terrorist
attacks in the United States; 47 percent said that while 42 percent said the war had raised the risk
of terrorism. While service members themselves were nine percentage points more likely to think
the risk had been reduced than increased, their family members were evenly divided. But in the
general population, 53 percent said the war had raised the risk of terrorism here, while 34 percent
said the risk had been reduced.
On the economy, 45 percent of the military sample called the national economy excellent or
good, while 55 percent said it was fair or poor. In the general population only 25 percent said
excellent or good and 74 percent said fair or poor. The military sample was also more likely than
the general population to rate their own economic circumstances excellent or good. And sixty
percent of them said they approved of how Bush was handling the economy, compared to 42
percent of the general population.
Annenberg Public Policy Center 3
A partial explanation for the pro-Bush tilt of the military sample was that they were considerably
more Republican than the general population. Forty-three percent called themselves Republican,
19 percent called themselves Democrats and 28 percent said they were independents.
While the
party identification of respondents in national polls moves around a bit from week to week, this was strikingly more Republican than the general population in the September 27-October 3
sample. There, 28 percent called themselves Republican, 34 percent Democratic and 27 percent independent.
But this Republican partisanship explained only some but not all of the differences, because on many questions the Republican service members were more pro-Bush than their civilian fellow
partisans. Independents in the military sample, when compared to civilians, were also more pro-Bush.
For example, 94 percent of Republicans in the military sample approved of Bush's handling of his job as president, compared to 88 percent of civilian Republicans. Among Democrats, 23 percent of those in the military sample approved, while 20 percent in the general population did.
Among independents, 59 percent of those in the military sample approved while just 48 percent of those in the general population did.
The military sample was split on whether Bush had a clear plan for a solution in Iraq, with 47 percent saying he had a plan and 48 percent saying he lacked a plan. But he rated better with them
than with the general population, where 38 percent said he had a plan and 56 percent said he did not.
While the military sample was more likely than the general public to credit Bush with having an Iraq plan, it was less likely than the public to believe Kerry had one. Eighteen percent of the
military sample said Kerry had a clear Iraq plan, while 72 percent said he did not have one. In the general public, 34 percent said Kerry had a plan and 54 percent said he did not.
The military sample also felt that being a veteran mattered as a qualification for the presidency.
Forty percent said it mattered "a great deal," and most of them also said having been in combat was an added advantage.
The military sample also generally agreed with the general population that the United States had become more unpopular in the world since Bush took office. Forty-two percent of the military
sample said the United States was regarded worse now, while 19 percent said it was now better regarded. In the general population, 52 percent said "worse" and 16 percent said "better."
On personal traits, the military sample gave Bush the advantage on several points where the general public sees Kerry better. Fifty-nine percent of the military respondents said the term
"cares about people like me" fit Bush better, while 30 percent said Kerry. In the general public, 46 percent preferred Kerry and 39 percent Bush.
Another consistent Kerry advantage in the general public, being considered "knowledgeable," also went to Bush among the military. Fifty percent said the term fit Bush better, while 33 percent
said Kerry. In the general public, 45 percent preferred Kerry while 38 percent chose Bush.
Annenberg Public Policy Center 4 One consistent Bush disadvantage with the general public, being considered "reckless," turned against Kerry in the military. Forty-seven percent of the military sample said the term fit Kerry better, while 37 percent chose Bush. In the general public, 46 percent said the term fit Bush better, while 30 percent chose Kerry.
The military sample also held Kerry's anti-Vietnam war activities against him more deeply than did the general public. Seventy-six percent of the military sample said they had seen, heard or
read about those statements and half of that group said they strongly disapproved. In the general public, 52 percent said they know of those statements, and a third of them strongly disapproved.
The military also gave a positive balance of opinion to Vice President Dick Cheney while the general public was negative. Fifty-four percent of the military sample had a favorable opinion of Cheney, while 28 percent had an unfavorable view. In the general public, 34 percent were favorable and 41 percent unfavorable.
Two members of Bush's cabinet also drew positive balances from the military sample. (The general population was not asked about them.) Fifty-three percent said they had a favorable opinion of Donald H. Rumsfeld, secretary of defense, while 24 percent said they had an
unfavorable view.
But the strongest rating of all went to Colin Powell, secretary of state. Eighty percent of the military sample had a favorable opinion of him. Only 7 percent had an unfavorable view.


Old Guy