PM's fresh agenda hits Senate hurdle; By Louise Dodson, John Garnaut and Mark Metherell; October 23, 2004

But the Coalition's strong expectation of controlling the Senate was looking suddenly shaky last night. Latest counting showed the lead of the crucial Queensland National Party candidate, Barnaby Joyce, had all but evaporated - from 5000 votes to a few hundred.

The shock shift, on the last day for receiving postal votes, could have profound implications for the Coalition's plans to reshape media ownership, industrial relations and ownership of Telstra.

An exasperated Mr Joyce - who was welcomed to the National Party's first party room meeting on Wednesday - said a personal letter from Mr Howard to traditional Nationals voters in regional Queensland had split the Coalition vote. "John Howard's once-in-a lifetime opportunity to control the Senate could be destroyed by his own letter. I'm not sure that's what he had in mind."

The National Party's calculations of the expected flow of preference votes suggest it maintains a razor-thin margin over One Nation. But if One Nation gets ahead, preference flows should ensure the Greens beat both of them for the sixth Queensland seat. This would probably leave the Coalition with 38 Senate seats, one short of a majority.