It stinks.

Infant mortality rose from 29 deaths per 1,000 live births before the war to 57 deaths per 1,000 afterward.

In 1990, for every 1000 live births, 56 children under the age of five were dying. Now 10 years later, the figure has gone up according to UNICEF to 131 per 1,000.

The Lancet usually is a trustworthy journal, but this study (or at least the press report about it) stinks as can be seen easily by doing a little plausibility check.

The first quote above is from the link provided by 28 Oct 04 - 06:45 PM. The second quote is from one of the many sites about Iraqi children dying before this war due to the UN sanctions. You remember the sanctions and the fight against or have you already forgotten that campaign?

If you compare the figures you can see easily that at least one them cannot be even remotely correct.

Even if reports and numbers fit into whatever is the most recent political agenda or campaign, a bit of critical reading of the numbers involved can do no harm. And a little effort of recollecting what was on the political agenda yesteryear of a bit before and what the numbers used in that campaign were can also do no harm.

If the present numbers are remotely correct, the numbers on which the former Iraq campaign were based must have been totally wrong. If the numbers then were even very remotely correct then the present study is complete rubbish.

Wolfgang (hating innumeracy)