It sounds like a reasonable probably number to me, given the scale of fighting since the invasion began and the destruction of basic infrastructure, hospitals, etc...

But what does it matter anyway exactly what the number is? The point is, a whole lot of innocent people have died unnecessarily due to an illegal and unjustified attack on a small country by a superpower (and a former superpower). And a lot more innocent people are going to die before it's over. Iraq was not responsible for 911.