the americans would do well to study the Algerian insurgency against the French, some 30 years ago.
Even though the French cracked down hard and defeated the insurgents, the cost and the tactics used turned the French population against it.
the leader of the insurgents later became the Algerian president.
(and one of the young officers in Algeria at the time happened to be Jacque Chirac)

after the overthrow of Saddam Hussein, some 40% of Iraqis viewed the US as liberators. After the abuse of Abu Graib (which btw was fully intentional in order to get actionable intelligence - not just the actions of a few uneducated prison guards who ended up taking the fall), only about 5% Iraqis viewed the US as liberators.

do you think that after the elections the insurgents will just put down their weapons and go away? They seem so reasonable after all.

the US will have to stay there for years.

It wouldnt matter if Kerry was president now, theyd still be attacking Fallujah at this time.