Cardinals split on vote; Gerard McManus; 16apr05

ON the eve of the conclave, the 115 cardinals are deeply divided over the prospect of Joseph Ratzinger becoming the next pope, paving the way for the emergence of a surprise compromise candidate. The conservative German cardinal is reported to have the support of 40 to 50 of the College of Cardinals, but remains well short of the two-thirds or 77 votes required. Cardinal Ratzinger's candidature is being challenged by a solid group of "reformisti", or reformers, under the symbolic leadership of Italian Carlo Martini, who has recently retired to Jerusalem and had been considered a spent force. Martini is 78 and Ratzinger celebrates his 78th birthday today.

The coalescing of forces behind the two men suggests the cardinals will have to seek a compromise candidate or become locked in a damaging stalemate – a scenario they will do everything in their power to avoid. Under the rules laid down by John Paul II, a deadlocked conclave can fall back to a simple majority vote after about a week of failed ballots and black smoke rising from the Sistine Chapel chimney. This would mean the Ratzinger forces could in theory "hold out" until their man was elected. Since the election of Gregory XVI in 1831, no conclave has lasted longer than five days, with most being over in two or three. Anything longer and the church would be seen as being split between the conservatives and liberals.

Martini has very little chance of being elected and will negotiate for his own preferred candidate. Martini, a Jesuit, is a biblical scholar and great orator who managed to get many of the youth of sophisticated Milan to attend his talks when he was the city's archbishop. He has urged the church to embark on a new wave of reform, including decentralising power to the local bishops.

The key to Monday's conclave then will be: if not Ratzinger and Martini, then who? In the past week, the most reported "papabile" have been Italian Dionigi Tettamanzi and Nigerian Francis Arinze, but their prospects have waned. Tettamanzi promoted himself heavily as a solid conservative, but his bona fides must be being questioned because the conservatives have deserted him. And while Arinze would have the romantic appeal of being the first black pope since the first centuries of the church, he has been too long in the Roman curia.

The two most likely compromise candidates are Jorge Bergoglio from Argentina and Ennio Antonelli, the Archbishop of Florence. Antonelli is the dark-horse Italian, a warm and engaging man who would be in the style of the short-lived but captivating John Paul I. He is far from being a hardliner but has urged priests to lead more spiritual lives, and warned parents to restrict their children's TV viewing and young people not to read horoscopes.

Bergoglio, another Jesuit, has consistently kept a low profile and has given just one interview since becoming Archbishop of Buenos Aries – to a parish newsletter. He lives a simple life, cooks his own meals, rides buses and works with the people in the cardboard cities of the Argentine capital. At the same time he has gained a reputation for being an adroit church politician and administrator, and for being a deeply spiritual man.

Bergoglio has the added advantage of being both a South American and an Italian (both his parents come from Italy).

In a race with 115 horses which is said to be decided not by men but by the Holy Ghost, Bergoglio at 10-1 may be worth a flutter.

© Herald and Weekly Times