Oh, for goodness sakes! This isn't news, at least not in the US.

The US military has been missing its recruiting targets for some months now, and that includes the Guard and Reserves. The "stop loss" programs that are in place demonstrate that; folks deployed have said that they would like to go home, but have a really bad time leaving their buddies (this is true for any war, by the way).

The chances of a draft in the US are slim to none, at least right now. A nuclear strike on the US would put one in place, but at the moment that isn't likely. Another 9/11-type thing would bother folks terribly, but isn't likely to trigger demands for a draft. The biggest reason that there isn't more protest here is because there is no draft and hence combat service isn't an immediate threat.

And yes, the news in the US carries the reports of those deserting, those who are AWOL, and those who try for CO status -- at least, those who do so because of their objections to combat. The Pentagon statement is accurate: most of those who go AWOL or desert do so because of criminal, not conscience, matters.

What would be the effect of a draft on the current Administration? Well, assuming that one could pass Congress -- damned little. The Bush administration ended when he was re-elected. What it would do is change the balance of power in the Congress with the elections next year, and Bush would be even more of a lame duck than he is now. (And no, impeachment wouldn't be out of the question except that Cheney would then become Prez.)

If you're looking for blood in the streets sort of stuff, it wouldn't happen.