That's the point, DMcG - he can't. At least 50 of his own MPs are sufficinetly pissed off with his presidential style and contempt for parliamentary process to be out for the kill at the first sniff of blood. And they've had that sniff.

Did you see Brown proclaiming in the papers yesterday that the defeat would have been even greater if he hadn't weighed in for Blair? Extraordinary. If Blair can't expect even a public show of loyalty from his most senior (de facto if not de jure) colleague, then he's finished.

My money would be on Brown being installed before the next Labour Party conference (Sept 2006). The Tories would be delighted with that. It would not suit them to have Blair hanging on till the end because Brown would then go into the election basking in a honeymoon start, and with the luxury of being able to say everything had been Blair's fault. But the fact that an early succession would play well for the Tories will not hold back the critics on Blair's own back benches. Their loathing for the man is palpable.