Teribus--

As I've said earlier, I believe that more Sunnis than expected will vote in December.

However, as I've also said, that is not the main point.

Far more significant will be the Sunni reaction, if, as is likely, their attempts to amend the constitution (after the election) are all rejected.

Will they then support the insurgency to a greater degree?

If so, Bush's plans for gradual US troop withdrawals "as the Iraqi forces become more able to handle the situation" are dead in the water.

Amendments are particularly crucial since, in the constitution as it stands, many of the vital questions of governing were not dealt with--just put off.



And you, dear Teribus, should acknowledge that, as I've often said before, starting back in spring 2004 in a thread entitled "Irony: Bush and the UN"--Bush very probably owes his 2004 election to the UN. Its willingness to act as an honest broker between the various Iraqi factions made possible a specifically Iraqi face on the opposition to the insurgency--and gave the lie to many predictions by Mudcatters and others of a Vietnam-style quagmire.

The quagmire may yet happen--but at least Bush has been able to postpone it til after 2004--which is all he cares about anyway.