The December election won't make much difference, even if, as is likely, lots of Sunnis will vote.

What really will tell the tale is if the Sunnis' proposed amendments to the constitution are passed or not--since the constitution as it stands just puts off many of the important questions of government.

If their amendments are all rejected, that will probably mean a huge increase in support for the insurgency.

But it's much too early to predict success or failure for an Iraq democracy.