I wouldn't worry about Azerbaijan, dianavan. (Or Iran, actually. Or North Korea. But I'll stick to Azerbaijan, here.) Absolutely no chance of a US invasion there, no matter how corrupt and brutal the Azeri leaders, and no matter how flawed their elections. The Aliyev Dynasty is decidedly secular, and Azerbaijan is by far the most secular of all Shi'a nations, so, no possible "war on terror" connections. And, as you mentioned, the US has generally cosy relations with Azerbaijan. The US desperately wants to keep the secularists in power, as the main alternative would be the Iranian-backed Islamists. Yeah, yeah: I know they made the mistake of toppling a secular government in Iraq, with predictable consequences. But even if he wanted to invade Azerbaijan, Bush couldn't just pull an invasion out of his ass in the next three years, especially with the ongoing debacles in Iraq and Afghanistan.

And, of course, there's the matter of Azerbaijan's neighbours:

Turkey shares ethnic and political ties with Azerbaijan, both being secular, Turkic nations whose people speak, basically, the same language. The two nations have their differences, but Turkey would, at the very least, strongly oppose an invasion of Azerbaijan, and definately deny the use of its land and airspace to American troops. At worst, an invasion could cause the two Turkic nations to unite, cause a schism within NATO, etc. And, of course, this would all involve Europe, as well.

And Iran, which has ethnic (about one quarter of Iranians are Azeri Turks, and Iran is home to the vast majority of the worlds Azeris) and religious (Shi'a) ties to Azerbaijan, would become involved, as well. And... well, I said I wouldn't go into Iran here, but just let me say that an American war against Iran would be utterly unwinnable. And with Christian Americans swarming over the place, Iranian and native-born Islamists would find even more fertile grounds than at present in Azerbaijan. The only result would be defeat for the Americans, and the creation of another Islamic Republic (like Iran, and, soon, Iraq).

And, perhaps most importantly, Russia would surely become involved if the United States were to invade its "Near Abroad." Even as toothless and weak as Russia is, there's no way the US would directly challenge it like that. But, just for fun, let's say the US invaded, Russia did nothing, and my Iranian scenario played out: Azerbaijan's population is radicalised, and Islamists take control. Russia would never tolerate the presence of such a nation on its borders, or, more specifically, on the Daghestani border. Afghanistan, Chechnya, Azerbaijan... Fun! :)

So, yeah, never, fucking ever gonna happen. Absolute fantasy. Bleh.

---Lepus Rex