IRAN: consequences of a war

An air attack on Iran by Israeli or US forces would be aimed at setting back Iran's nuclear
programme by at least five years. A ground offensive by the United States to terminate the regime
is not feasible given other commitments in Iraq and Afghanistan, and would not be attempted....
One key response from Iran would be a determination to reconstruct a nuclear programme
and develop it rapidly into a nuclear weapons capability, with this accompanied by withdrawal
from the Non-Proliferation Treaty. This would require further attacks. A military operation against
Iran would not, therefore, be a short-term matter but would set in motion a complex and long-lasting
confrontation. It follows that military action should be firmly ruled out and alternative strategies
developed....
While Israel would gain in the short term from an attack on Iran, the longer-term consequences would
be far less positive.

(from a research group who had been quite good in predicting the outcome of the Iraq war)

Wolfgang