The Mudcat Café TM
Thread #88694   Message #1670487
Posted By: GUEST,petr
16-Feb-06 - 08:07 PM
Thread Name: BS: The coming war with Iran?
Subject: RE: BS: The coming war with Iran?
I enjoy Dyers writings, and enjoyed his recent history of war as well.
and I do think hes over the top sometimes.

in this case if you believe that Irans nuclear ambition is dangerous to the rest of the world then I guess you have to believe in some way of stopping it.

(also note that the CIA believes its 10years away)

the options are then - referral to the Security Council,
and possible sanctions - unlikely

some kind of surprise military strike by the Israelis or the US
and I agree with that link above by the Oxford Research group.
it would only make things worse in the long run, and not likely to succeed - as the Iranians have probably spread out the facilities and
and put them in hardened bunkers --
there would be a further threat to tanker traffic in the gulf, oil prices would go even higher, this would play into the hands of AlQaeda and end up with more recruits for their side.

another option would be to work out an agreement whereby the Russians might supply the enriched uranium.

or probably the best long term option would be to support dissidents in Iran and work towards a popular overthrow..

America isnt bothered by the Chinese nuclear capability , they do a huge amount of trade with China, Im not bothered at all by Irans desire for nuclear weapons, on the other hand I am more concerned that the US in its attempt to maintain its Pax Americana, will destroy
the UN and go back to the 19th century system of the law of the jungle and shifting alliances..