To answer one of your questions: no, they are not predictable - at least, I've never heard of them being predicted, though I suppose there's an atmospheric-scientist sitting at a computer somewhere who claims to be able to ... Probably some tour guides make the same claim ... Okay, let me put it this way: I can't predict them.

I've seen some winters when they've been frequent and lively; others when they've been rare and not too spectacular. As a rule of thumb, the further north you go, the more likely you are to see a show.

By the way, the government bureaucrat who replied to your letter is probably a guest in our country, and would likely have a hard time finding Canada on a map.