according to Galbraith the civil war has been on since at least 2004.
However after the destruction of the Samarra mosque in February it intensified.
IT is very difficult to stop a civil war once it escalates out of control. Those who are moderate become targets and people are forced into increasingly hardline extremes.
Baghdad is the most dangerous city in the world right now.
To maintain order in Baghdad, especially would require
much larger troop commitment with more casualties.
There is no easy way out.

Given their smaller population though, the Sunnis will not prevail.

A recent comment by the BUsh administration was that as troops will be
slowly withdrawn the US will press Iraqis to maintain a united Iraq.
(just how they will do that with less troops when they havent been able to do that for the last 3years with 150,000 troops is another thing). The conventional wisdom is that it would be destabilizing to split a country up, however a country like Iraq that required a strongman dictator to maintain order, was destabilizing anyway.

I dont think, the Nazi party comparison is out of line - comparing the Baath party to the Nazis. Their 35 year rule with genocide of 300,000 SHi-ites, and close to 200,000 Kurds.
(it is hard to imagine keeping a country united when 2 groups were victims of genocide by the third group. The Sunnis still deny there was any genocide.

regarding future oil revenues - apparently there may be rich oilfields around Baghdad.