As much as I have NO use for Tony Blair, and as much as I dislike the US policy such as it is in Iraq, I think the Iranians have fucked up big time on this. DDespite a recent statement by the Saudi leader that he would support the Sunnis if the US pulled out of Iraq, he was parenthetically clear that he would do that because his real fear is Iran and the Shi'ite majority there. Iran has had and continues to have a history of getting its people worked up over issues that really aren't. This bullshit--the arresting of 15 marines/sailors--is a play to the peanut gallery in Iran. Within days crowds were shouting "Death to Britain" then a few "Death to Americas". What I think has happened is that Iran badly miscalculated the reaction of the Brits. Britain is the union that sailed 1/3 of the way around the world to wage a war against an entrenched enemy whose supply line was shorter than theirs. The work of the SAS and then the troops who landed was awesome. The Navy and the Airmen/women took their share of casualties, but there was never any doubt in my mind that the UK would win. On some issues they are just too fuckin' proud to give up. (The years after Dunkirk attest to that, and the defense of the Falklands (and before someone starts with 'they were the Maldives and Argentia owned them', I have heard that one before).

The Iranians may think they have pride, but I know they really have no idea what they are up against on this. If they have any damned sense at all, they will release the hostages--because that is what those 15 people are--THEN deal with the IraqisBrits on where the line really is. I give it tops ten days and shit will start to happen. Some of it will escalate I don't doubt. I think it won't involve nukes, but it will be bloody. The result will be the fall of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. I can't say I'd be sorry to see him go, and define go how you will.

Iran has already lost the political dimension. All Iran can do now is either release the hostages or keep those hostages deal with the anger of a nation that will NOT back down. Sometimes pride goeth before a fall, and sometimes it precedes a real shit kicking.