And if taking that chance actually makes a nuclear war more likely?

Remember, it's not critics in the West you've got to convince, but Putin and the Russians. If they think that the extension East of Nato, and the introduction of anti-missile technology threatens Russia, that's a reality with consequences.

And it's as well to remember that there are significant advantages in a back-to-the-good-old-days Fortress Russia scenario, which will be evident to a KGB veteran.