Yes Barry, if it was Gdubya's intention to deflect attention from his problems at home, he would not be the first and certainly not last head of state to risk and even precipitate a war in order to raise his popularity in the polls. Remember Margaret and the Falklands. To quote Ewan MacColl:-

…..the lady's reputation plummeted down into the red
But trouble blew up in the Falklands it was jam on her ginger bread
"Thank God for a nice little war" she said "This is Britain's finest hour"
So a couple of hundred squaddies died so she could stay in power.