All you people who shed crocodile tears at the idea that a black man cannot be elected in 2008 are forgetting several things what you imagine to be your hard-nosed realism--but what is actually self-defeating cynicism.

1) Obama has already come further than any other black presidential candidate--if any poll can be believed. He is intelligent, thinks on his feet, and does not take the attitude that his candidacy is part of "reparations". He's just an excellent candidate who happens to be black. And who may be able to light a fire under young voters--and others-- not seen since JFK.

2) Hillary is self-destructing---proving more every day, with every leak, planned or not, from her campaign, that she is part of the old slimy adversarial politics--that her claim to bring "change" is the feeblest of facades.

3) Whoever the Democratic candidate is, there will only be one Republican to run against. If you think Giuliani can win, exactly how? If Romney, how? McCain is the best Republican--but with his immigration stance--i.e. a reasonable person-- and his insufficient tax-cutting zeal, he has no chance for the Republican nomination.

So any of the current top Democrats has an excellent chance--Obama or Edwards the best chance (or both on the same ticket)

Believe it or not, smug cynicism is not always the best political stance.

Obama's only large problem in Iowa, as I've noted before, is that his strongest supporters are young voters--and the caucus will take place during the Christmas break, when those college students will not be in Iowa. Whereas Hillary's strongest supporters are older women--who will still be in Iowa--and tend to vote in large numbers.