Add to your calculations re these hoaxes the manpower factor if it takes an average hoaxee, say, seven minutes to open, read, absorb, react, and forward to his five friends the Email containing the hoax.

The next five people, assuming all are newbie-class, take the total up to 7 +(5x7)=42 minutes. The next wave, 42 + (7x25) = 197, or 3 hours and 17 minutes. Assuming (conservatively) 5 seconds actual relay time the ratio of linear time to wasted time after these three iterations is 21.25: 197. The wasted time, valued at a modest $15/hour for an adult professional amounts to $50 in the first 21 minutes. in the next 21 minutes this wastage multiplies: from 25 people to 125 to 625 to 3125 people. That's 3875 times 7 minutes, or 27125 minutes (452.083 hours) in the second set of three steps, valued at $6781additional. So in about 43 minutes the waste curve in terms of productive human time goes from $1.75 to $6832 cumulative waste.

Draw that curve on a chart and you can see why forwarding a hoax scare without checking it can grow to a hormongous loss to the productive community world-wide. Of course this is an idealized model, but the rate it reflects is about right.

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