The Mudcat Café TM
Thread #108397   Message #2257985
Posted By: Q (Frank Staplin)
09-Feb-08 - 05:27 PM
Thread Name: BS: Primaries
Subject: RE: BS: Primaries
Ho hum.
To re-quote from the analysis by Gruber at MIT, but quoting the Krugman article in the NY Times directly-

"...a plan without mandates, broadly resembling the Obama plan, would cover 23 million of those currently uninsured, at a taxpayer cost of $102B per year. An otherwise identical plan with mandates would cover 45 million of the uninsured- essentially everyone- at a taxpayer cost of 124B. Over all, the Obama-type plan would cost $4400 per newly insured person, the Clinton plan only $2700. ..."One plan achieves more or less universal coverage; the other, although it costs more than 80% as much, covers only about half of those currently uninsured."
The analysis results are ..."consistent with the results of other analyses, such as the 2003 study, commissioned by the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation, that compared health reform plans and found that mandates made a big difference both to success in covering the uninsured and to cost-effectiveness."
"...the Obama campaign has demonized the idea of mandates- most recentlyt in a scare-tactics mailer sent to voters... similar to the "Harry and Louise" ads run by the insurance lobby in 1993, ads that helped undermine the last chance at getting universal health care."
"If Mr. Obama gets to the White House and tries to achieve universal coverage, he'll find that it can't be done without mandates- but if he tries to institute mandates, the enemies of reform will use his own words against him."
The bottom line- if Clinton gets the nomination, there is some chance that universal health care might come to pass. "If Obama gets the nomination,it just won't happen."

Going back to the figures at the top of this post, the Clinton plan covers 45 million uninsured, while the Obama plan covers 23 million, leaving some 20 million uninsured.

Who are the uninsured and where do these uninsured end up? Many are currently healthy people who can afford their medical bills, and have not signed for any program- if they get a serious and costly illness, where do they go? To the free clinics which are already overburdened by the poor who are uninsured or inadequately covered, which translates to-
"millions outside of the doctor's office and in the charity wards..."