As to who is "electable" and who is not...I think we'll have to wait and see about that. Much can change between now and November.

The media can make or break any candidate. It depends on how they choose to do their coverage, and it can depend sometimes on a single incident or a single rumour, and how that incident or rumour is played upon in the mainstream media.

The tail does wag the dog, unfortunately, most of the time. So keep an eye on what the tail is doing. That can change quite quickly sometimes.