The Mudcat Café TM
Thread #109201   Message #2280187
Posted By: Big Mick
05-Mar-08 - 10:45 AM
Thread Name: BS: Dem Convention Repeat of '24???
Subject: RE: BS: Dem Convention Repeat of '24???
When discussing Presidential politics, it is always good policy to stay away from the absolute statements. There is way too much flux in the situation for anyone to predict anything. There is certainly a list in each camp at this point, but it is not a short list. The decision will be narrowed as the issues in the campaign, as well as the nomination, becomes clearer. It will NOTbe based on what has been said, or who gets along with, the candidate. It will be based on what is needed to enhance the nominee's ability to win. Kennedy didn't even like Johnson, but he chose him to draw the southern dem's who otherwise wouldn't vote for a northern, liberal, Roman Catholic. Eishenhower was no fan of Nixon, but he brought California. Vice Presidents are always chosen for what they bring. I believe that Susan's prediction, IMO, is backwards, if anything. But, if Clinton wins the nomination, she will consider Obama heavily, but there is also a strong possibility she moves away from him.

I won't make a prediction, but I will say this. McCain represents the potential for a much stronger challenge than folks are giving him credit for. He can draw the moderate Republican looking for a change, but not too much of a change. One of the important trends that we noticed in the 2000 campaign was the trend of the moderate Republican women to crossover to the right moderate democrat. If Clinton gets the nod, she will choose a candidate that appeals to that demographic. The battle in the fall will be for the swing voters. As long as the Repub's were looking at a Romney or Huckabee, the Dems were in the catbird seat. McCain hurts that. Look for a VP that can take that segment away from him.

We are in for a lot of swings back and forth yet on this one. Way too early for hardcore pronouncements.

Mick