The Mudcat Café TM
Thread #109201   Message #2281106
Posted By: GUEST,Guest
06-Mar-08 - 08:28 AM
Thread Name: BS: Dem Convention Repeat of '24???
Subject: RE: BS: Dem Convention Repeat of '24???
Well, I think Edwards has some brokering power between the two candidates, not to hand them the delegates though. His endorsement, as you point out Janie, is worth more outside NC than it is inside. But that doesn't mean that a well timed endorsement, or one or the other candidate making a deal to put him on as VP, isn't in the cards.

One of the unknowns is how many African Americans will swing back to Clinton if Obama doesn't get the nomination, and how many will be sore losers and stay home. That is the race aspect that makes the primaries and the general election more volatile this year, as we saw in the turnout in South Carolina. We do know one thing, Obama can turn out the SE & some southern states' African American voters in record numbers.

However, in other areas, like in Texas, the African American vote stayed about what it did in past primaries.

The African American voting bloc has long been a given for the Dems. If Obama doesn't take all, will this be the beginning of a fracturing of the Dems hold on that community? Will we start to see lots of mini-Alan Keyes & Obamas (ie, a right wing Republican & a right wing Democrat) phenomenon begin to emerge?

And if that is the case, will this election be the nascent rise of the Latino voting bloc?

One of Clinton's national co-chairs is the young, charismatic Latino mayor of LA, Antonio Villaraigosa. He is most definitely an up and comer in the national party. If Clinton wins the nod, what if she more or less writes off the African American vote, in favor of the Latino vote, and hopes enough African Americans still turn out on election day to hand her a landslide win?