To refresh this thread in light of recent developments, here is an interesting analsyis on the anatomy of the civil strife under the surface in Iraq:

"To suggest that good intentions will cross fundamental cultural, social and religious differences and win over a damaged population is at best dangerous and wishful thinking."

UNDERSTANDING PLAYERS IN IRAQ'S CIVIL WARS: As Center for American Progress Senior Fellow Brian Katulis explained, the violence "brings into the open this long-running intra-Shi'a civil war." The fighting across southern Iraq has pitted Sadr's Madhi Army against Abdul Aziz Al Hakim's Islamic Supreme Council (ISCI) of the so-called Badr Brigade, which has support from Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki.ÊAdding another layer to just one component of Iraqs many civil wars, "a third Shi'a faction, the Fadhila movement, is also engaged in the struggle for power in Basra," Katulis writes. The result is a show of force from Sadr. "If these violations continue, a huge popular eruption will take place that no power on Earth can stop,"Êsaid Nassar al-Rubaei, leader of the Sadrist bloc in parliament. MostÊironically, if Iraqi security forces and their militia allies prevail, Iran's hand in Iraq will be heavily bolstered. "The Badr Organisation and the ISCI had always been and remained the most pro-Iranian political-military forces in Iraq, having been established, trained and funded by the IRGC from Shiite exiles in Iran during the Iran-Iraq war," notes journalist Gareth Porter.

NOT GOOD VERSUS BAD: The Bush administration has tried to simplify the violence into a government versus militia struggle. "The Prime Minister has gone to Basra....to re-establish the rule of law," said National Security adviser Steven Hadley yesterday. But as analyst Anthony Cordesman noted, it is not that simple. A better explanation is thatÊthe Iraqi government -- allied with ISCI militias -- is trying to suppress its political enemies. "[T]his is really a fairly transparent partisan effort by the Supreme Council dressed in government uniforms to fight the Sadrists and Fadila," said Joost Hiltermann of the International Crisis Group. "Maliki in alliance with ISCI are doing their best to marginalize their political enemies locally Ð in preparation for local elections in October 2008," argued historian Reidar Visser. The result?Ê"It seems far more likely that even the best case outcome is going be one that favors Iraqracy over democracy," says Cordesman. Furthermore, this is not a hands-off situation. The U.S. is providing air support --Ê"help just in case they need it," explained White House Press Secretary Perino.

AND THE SURGE?: The administration is trying to spin the new activity as a "by-product of the success of the surge." President Bush even called it a "positive moment" today. But the violence shows the surge's failure to contain Iraq's vicious internal power struggles. One only has to look at British military activity in southern Iraq in 2006 and 2007 (Britain withdrew from Iraq last year). "At first, there were signs of progress" such as diminished violence, but local militias "were not defeated; they went underground or, more often, were absorbed into existing security forces," noted Robert Malley and Peter Harling at the time. Ironically, "heightened pressure" on Sadr "is likely to trigger both fierce Sadrist resistance in Baghdad and an escalating intra-Shiite civil war in the south." Tuesday's violence "looks like a preview of what will happen as we approach provincial elections in the fall,"ÊHiltermann added. New Iraqi legislation has alsoÊstirred anger from Sadr, whose followers complain that too fewÊ"have been granted amnesty under a new law designed to free thousands held by the Iraqis and Americans."

More here.


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