The Mudcat Café TM
Thread #101088   Message #2312638
Posted By: Ron Davies
10-Apr-08 - 11:27 PM
Thread Name: BS: Popular Views on Obama
Subject: RE: BS: Popular Views on Obama
But where would Rig get all his information if he didn't watch Sean? He relies on him (and Rush, Ann etc.) for all his political knowledge. And without them his brilliance might be slightly dimmed. And we certainly wouldn't want that.



Separate topic:

Those of us who are in favor of Obama should watch out for the old inflated expectations scenario---as in NH and TX. In both situations Obama made up a huge amount of ground, but the curse of positive coverage, and we on Mudcat who report polls should be aware, is that if general reporting is an uptrend, any dip down is magnified. Both in NH and TX, Obama's own people tried to reduce unrealistic expectations.   But the polls predicting a continuing surge in his favor dominated coverage. And in both instances, Hillary claimed victories--which then became the "story"--but actually were not triumphs--particularly considering how far ahead she had been a few weeks prior.

Similarly, we are in danger of setting ourselves up for another Hillary "victory" in PA. A few weeks ago she was expected to take PA by 15 to 20%. Now if we cite a poll of 50 to 44% (6 percent separating them) that becomes the new benchmark, allowing her supporters, known for expert grasping at straws, to claim that if she wins by 10% that is a "famous victory". Which it isn't.

Far better to insist on a 15% difference to be a win for her. Which is in fact what she needs, since she will lose NC-- which has about 2/3 as many delegates as PA-- badly. Anything less than a 15% win in PA is a loss for her. If she comes out of the PA, NC ,IN, clump of primaries having only made up about 10 delegates, she has no chance to convince superdelegates to trend towards her.

Especially since Dean and the other DNC people are well aware of her huge negatives--and the equally great opportunity Obama presents.   Rig Blfsttsflk-- (affectionately named after the Li'l Abner character who always had a cloud over him)-- notwithstanding.