"There will be a huge turnout of Republicans for McCain." Not necessarily.

1)    You wouldn't believe the white-hot passion against him, by the Tancredo true-believers, for his stand on illegal immigration. Some even call him "Juan" McCain. This puts him in a no-win bind. Either he gives in to them, and insists on no progress on immigration until the borders are "secured". In which case he gets very few Hispanic votes--certainly out West. And consider that Bush got about 40% of the Hispanic votes in 2004--which more than made the difference in a very close election.

Or he insists on consideration of a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants--in which case the Tancredo (and Rig) fire-eaters stay home on election day.

2) Anybody against the Iraq war will vote against McCain. This includes some Republicans--how many I don't know--but I know one.

3) Obama's message of post-partisanship resonates with lots of voters--including some Republicans.

4) Most importantly, the Republican turnout will not be the determining factor. The decisive factor will be the independent vote--which is growing faster than the parties--and which will support Obama lopsidedly, aside from pro-Iraq war independents, of course.



McCain's most serious problem is that his own base will not allow him to propose what the country needs--whether an end to the Iraq war or help for pressured middle-class and lower-class voters that goes beyond "market-based solutions".