"Premature withdrawal from Iraq would presage a similar withdrawal from Afghanistan." - teribus

"Speculation on your part," - Dianavan

It most certainly is Dianavan, now examine the grounds for stating it as a possibility shall we:

- US cuts and runs from Iraq in order to satisfy the "Get them out NOW" brigade. How do you think that would effect Jihadist recruitment Dianavan?

- As the sectarian civil war erupts in Iraq, everybody and their dog will be claiming credit for having routed the mighty US. I have already pointed out to Ron that out of any 100 representative group of muslims asked 85 will say that Al-Qaeda did it, 15 will say that the Medhi Army did it with the backing of Iran.

- US runs the current military effort in both Afghanistan and Iraq from where Dianavan? CENTCOM at MacDill AFB, in Tampa, Florida, although a forward headquarters has been established at Camp As Sayliyah in Qatar to serve American strategic interests of the Iraq region.

- I would say that with the US Forces out of Iraq, in such a way that it can be presented as a defeat to the people in the region, pressure will be on those small Emirates currently providing the US with base facilities in the area to withdraw their consent for those bases and request that the US remove themselves from their sovereign territory.

- Main air support facility for strikes into Afghanistan is where Dianavan?

- The US is going to keep Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Assault Groups in the Persian Gulf, Dianavan? If so for what reason?

- US now out of the Persian Gulf Region, their nearest base, or at least until 2016, would be Diego Garcia.

- Having been perceived to have been defeated in Iraq by Al-Qaeda, Dianavan. How would the people of Pakistan view that? What sort of stance would they want their Government to take?

- All operations in Afghanistan are totally reliant upon over-flight right of access, that can be withdrawn at any time.

- "From my point of view, if the U.S. had stayed in Afghanistan instead of expanding to Iraq, the war on terrorism would probably be over by now." - From your point of view Dianavan you were solidly against any action being taken in Afghanistan at all.

- "Withdrawl from Iraq could free U.S. troops to fight the terrorists on the Afghan/Pakistan border where we know they are trained." - So an army that has just been defeated in Iraq is going to be welcomed into another country in the region to do what Dianavan - lose again? Remembering of course that the US now has full-time "professional" armed forces, have you got any idea what the premature withdrawal from Iraq would do for morale throughout the armed services of the United States of America - Hint a similar retreat from Afghanistan in 1988 finished the Red Army - but they were conscripts. Can you explain to me why the US armed forces sent to Afghanistan would trust their "Commander-in-Chief" and Congress back home in the good ol' USofA not to leave them hanging out to dry the moment things began to look tough?

- "Don't you think this is more logical than fighting a phantom, al Qaeda, threat in Iraq?" - No I do not think it more logical, Al-Qaeda-in-Iraq has been marginalised and are increasingly finding themselves being shut out in the cold. That has come about through the Sunni population turning against them, exactly as I told Ron Davies years ago. Al-Qaeda has found themselves in this position because they were sucked in to fighting battles on ground that was not of their choosing, they lost the initiative. Premature withdrawal of US forces from Iraq hands the initiative back to them and the undoubted civil war that would ensue would give them every opportunity to repair their tarnished image in the eyes of the "Islamic" World.

Yes I think that if the US withdrew from Iraq they would also have to draw stumps in Afghanistan, the big question of course, the more important consideration, would be the extent to which nuclear armed Pakistan would be destabilised in the process - Another thing that General Davies has not considered.