1. "So you finally admit there is absolutely no evidence that al-Qaeda can take over Iraq--ever." - Ron Davies

Eh, No Ron, go back and read what I said - basically boils down to - anything is possible in politics given the right timescale and circumstances - After all a minority political party took control of Iraq before in 1956 and succeeded in ruling it for 47 years - why not again. Probability is against Al-Qaeda "ruling" Iraq, but that does not discount Iraq being governed by a political party extremely sympathetic to Al-Qaeda and extremely anti-US.

By the bye, Ron, where is your "evidence" that they won't - I find it rather like talking to a five year old when they insist that they want evidence that something will happen - Bit of advice Ron, invest in a "crystal ball". Fact is Ron, that neither you or I have got any idea of what will happen, neither of us can provide any "evidence" regarding what may happen at some time in the future, we can only hypothesise, which comes down to personal opinion. You state that US Forces could withdraw now without there being any serious consequences, I strongly disagree with that to the point of view and believe that such a withdrawal would be catastrophic in terms of consequences that would affect the country, the region and the world.

2. "the revulsion by Shiites, Kurds and Sunnis at the thuggish " Islamic Puritanism" of al-Qaeda." - Ron Davies

I believe that quite some time back I identified this as a possible outcome of Al-Qaeda-in-Iraq's attempts at fomenting the "civil war" that you and your fellow-travellers here were always chattering about. Other lynch-pins were realisation that it would be essential to become part of the political process, that they had to work with their elected government if they wanted things to improve. All of that by and large has happened and things are improving every day.

3. "Therefore, as I have said more than once, US combat troops have no role to play in Iraq--aside from in "Kurdistan". And so should come home." - Ron Davies

What role do US Forces have to play in "Kurdistan"? How do they propose and argue the case to disengage and withdraw troops from the Arab Sunni centre and Arab Shiia South, yet keep troops in the most peaceful governates of the country? Might they not be accused of attempting to "steal" the Kurds oil?

I will make a prediction Ron should Obama win the Presidential Election and put his withdrawal plan into effect - It goes something like this:

1. Obama announces his "staged withdrawal of US Forces.

2. As the first withdrawal is underway attacks by remaining Sunni Insurgents, Al-Qaeda-in-Iraq and the Medhi Army and associated militias will increase.

3. Obama is trapped he cannot break his election promises so his only alternative is to alter his withdrawal plans to get the boys home quicker - i.e. the same rout that leaving Vietnam resulted in.

4. Massed broadcasts from some hole in the ground way up there in the Hindukush, by Al-Qaeda, proclaiming to the world and its aunt that they have done exactly what they said they were going to do and driven the forces of the "Great Satan" from sacred Islamic soil - Now both you and I, Ron, know that that is a load of old Tosh, but yer average "ready to be radicalised muslim youth" in "the muslin street", well he's going to lap it up big time. Is the US out of hot water - No, not in the slightest, you were firmly in their sights in the early 1990's and you will continue to be in their sights after all your troops are safely back home - The only thing now is, is that they have the initiative, and possibly an extrmely secure base from which to plan and operate.

Guest Dianavan - Petal - I know that you will really hate to learn of this but, "big bad multi-national oil companies" actually control very little of the oil and gas on this planet. I believe that it amounts to less than 7% of the total available. The rest, the vast bulk of oil and gas resources of this planet are "nationally" owned and controlled - What a bummer Eh, especially considering some of your more dearly held myths.

"Control of the Persian Gulf/control of oil distribution - whats the difference?" - Dianavan.

The US neither controls the Persian Gulf, nor does it control oil distribution. If it did can you explain why on earth the US would want to see oil at the price per barrel that it is? Oh Yes!! to generate profits for Russia, Venezuela, etc, etc. I forgot that "out of the box" thinking behind the "US Master Plan for World Domination", seems to be a winner, make money for everybody bar ourselves, talk about the strategy of "indirect approach".

"Why shouldn't the people of the Persian Gulf control the flow of oil?" - Dianavan

Psssst! Dianavan - they already do, or hadn't you heard of OPEC?

Good post BB, very informative.