Ruth and IrishEnglish - I am in agreement with a great deal of what you both say. Of course one bases one's suppositions on probabilities. We all do that. And we base our suppositions on direct experience as well, if we have any.

I didn't believe there were any alien vehicles until I actually saw something that appeared most probably to be an alien vehicle. Prior to that I just wasn't interested in the subject. It wasn't that I scorned people who were interested in it, I just wasn't interested, that's all.

Now, let's go back through some of that...

From Ruth: "I haven't met a vampire."

Nor have I. I met someone once who claimed he'd met one, but I don't have any particular opinion based on that. I think there are probably some odd people who think they are vampires from time to time, and who behave accordingly, but I doubt that there are any real vampires in the sense that they are depicted in fiction. However, I can't say for 100% certain, I just doubt it.

"I haven't seen a unicorn."

Nor I. Everyone I've ever known of seems to agree that they're mythical.

"I haven't seen fairies."

Hmmm. Well, I have heard enough personal accounts about that sort of thing that I think there may indeed be some nature spirit beings which have been termed "fairies" by certain people who were in the right level of awareness to catch a brief sight of them...but I can't say for sure. I haven't seen any myself. I would assume that if they do exist at all that they do not exist in the physical spectrum, but in another spectrum that's fairly near the physical realm. A level of vibration up and over, so to speak. This is something most people never give any credence too...because they have no awareness of it. Fine with me.

"I think it is very unlikely that these creatures exist, and no, i don't believe that America has suddenly become the target for mass alien abduction."

Well, obviously that hasn't happened or we'd be hearing more about it, wouldn't we? I think the phrase "mass alien abduction" is not applicable. There do appear to have been a certain number of pretty convincing incidents, and a few of them became famous for awhile. Is it a real phenomenon? I don't know. I suspect it may be, but if so I suspect it's quite rare on a per capita basis. Look, we abduct animals whenever we want to, because we have the means to, and it pleases us to do so. What guarantee do we have that there isn't some other lifeform out there in the same position analagous to us? If so, they would probably like studying us now and then. If they could do it...they would.

"It's not about whether it's happened to me or not. It's about the balance of probability. I am capable of what I consider reasoned judgement and a healthy scepticism - for the record, I never believed in WMD either."

I didn't think you would have believed in the WMDs, Ruth. It was pretty plainly a political ploy. For me also it's basically about the balance of probability. But the balance of probability does not determine whether I believe or disbelieve in something. It determines whether I think something is likely or not. That isn't the same as believing or disbelieving.

To believe or disbelieve in something is to say absolutely categorically "I KNOW this is true" or "I KNOW this isn't true". I don't know about any of those things for sure, and I didn't know about the WMDs for sure. I just thought about them in terms of the probabilities, and I figured "highly unlikely". So, yes, I do apply Occam's Razor, but it does not lead me to absolute belief or certainty, it simply leads me to a point where I say, "That seems likely" or "that doesn't seem likely".

To say that something doesn't seem likely is not to ridicule or scorn the one who came up with the idea. Nor is it necessarily to think he is mentally unstable. He might be. He might not.

I don't find David Icke's idea about lizard people very likely at all. If it was all he had to say, I'd probably not be interested in listening to him. It's because he has a great deal more to say that makes a great deal of sense that I listen with interest to what he has to say.

When it comes to the lizards...well, I just shrug, because I have no idea whether there's anything to it. Like I say, it doesn't seem likely. Still, I have no basis for ridiculing the man, because I find he has a lot to say that is right on the mark.

And, you see, he is not trying to take a country to war nor does he have the power to. That's serious business. That's why I find politicians scary...but not David Icke.

If David Icke had just stuck to the football, like you say, stigweard, he'd be in clover and everyone would think he was a "great guy"...a real solid and dependable bloke...someone you hope will come to your next party. ;-) That's why I figure he must believe in what he's doing to have gone through all that public ridicule and rejection. That took guts. And that means he's either a bit crackers...or it means he knows about something quite unusual that most of us don't know about...or it's a combination of the two.

I have no final conclusions about that, because I just don't know.