"Did you get those "factors" from the main stream media?"

Answer - No.

"You don't think that War in the Middle East trumps uncertainty in those other places?"

Answer - There is no war in the middle-east, or there wasn't last time that I checked the world news. Exports of oil from the middel-east have not been disrupted since the Iraqi Forces were expelled from Kuwait in 1991.

"You don't think it (non-existant war in the middel-east) trumps all other concerns?"

Answer - No I do not.

"Its not supply and demand. There is plenty of supply on the world market and OPEC isn't pumping at anywhere near full capacity."

Answer - Are you saying that demand for fuel has not risen? Of course there are adequate supplies, but supply of crude oil is only one part of thge equation, or don't you realise that. OPEC are not the ony suppliers and why should they pump at full capacity if to do otherwise suits their national interests better. Remember Jack National Oil Companies own 93% of the world's oil while those big bad oil companies only control 7%. "Its not supply and demand" - Oil like anything else is a commodity and as far as the market value of it is concerned it is ALL a question of supply and demand.

"Refining capacity? How does a lack of refining capacity do anything but DEFLATE the price per barrel?"

This might come as startling news to you Jack the Sailor but very few people use crude oil, it has to be refined into a form that can be used as fuel. Now it would appear that according to your logic that if there are too few refineries price of a barrel of oil will go down. Now why should that be? Is it because you think that those who own the oil are different from those who refine the oil? Who are in turn different from those who distribute the oil and sell it? If so how touchingly quaint and "Camberwick Green" in nature. Besides it should be blindingly obvious that it is the demand for the refined product that determines the cost of the raw material per barrel, that along with a few other costs that have to be factored in.

"You think the refiners are handing over checks saying "I can't refine that much, but ship it to me anyway. i just love sitting on billions in inventory."

Answer - The "refiners" as you refer to them are either National Oil Company owned facilities or are owned by Oil Companies. They, along with speculators sit on oil by the tanker load waiting to see which way the market will go and where best to sell

"There is no lack of resources to bring new supplies on line the oil companies are awash with cash."

Answer - Oh, so the only resource required to bring new supplies on line is cash is it Jack the Sailor? Again a rather naive view of the real world. Now then Jack with oil at $145 per barrel how many people (nations) who have oil in their territories will be eager to exploit that wealth? Lots? All of them I would have said, all over the world. Any idea what it takes to find oil and get it to the "gas" station Jack, it takes a damn sight more than just money. I'll give you an example of things where the lead time on hardware is measured in terms of years - Wellheads, blow-out preventers, flexible pie the list goes on and on down through a whole rake of specialist expertise and equipment that is in short supply because of the world-wide scramble to produce oil. That Jack the Sailor was one thing the Kurds in Iraq were very well tuned into, that is why they were in such a rush to enter into contracts to get their oil programmes running. Doesn't matter how much money you've got Jack the Sailor if there are no rigs available for drilling your oil stays where it is.

"The "uncertainty" problems with the three countries you mentioned are largely a consequence of the belliocose behavior of the Bush administration and the oil comapnies."

Answer - Really? Nigeria, Russia and Venezuela? Now let's see:

Nigeria - Internal problems mainly to do with lack of equitable distribution of the oil wealth within the country principally in the oil producing regions of the country (Ibo). Now I do not see GWB or the USA featuring large in that scenario. (33.3% of the way there)

Russia - When the USSR collapsed western oil companies were welcomed in to boost Russian production. Once that was done the Russian Government started grabbing stuff back, which quite naturally caused investors to become more cautious and western firms viewed the area as being not worth the hassle. Russia signed energy deals with western Europe and when disputes have arisen between the Russians and her newly independent neighbours (primarily the Ukraine) the Russians promptly turned the taps off, not a very good move to inspire customer confidence. Once again I do not see GWB or the USA featuring large in that scenario. (Now 66.7% of the way there)

Venezuela - Much the same as Russia in that Chavez has acted in such a way as to scare off foreign investment and technical know how. This ultimately has a price for Venezuela's oil industry further down the line, you cannot just produce you must carry out down-hole maintenance to keep the reservoirs healthy, Chavez is not doing this and the industry world-wide knows it. Nothing whatsoever to do with GWB or the USA in that scenario. (Home)