The Mudcat Café TM
Thread #102586   Message #2394674
Posted By: Joe_F
21-Jul-08 - 08:51 PM
Thread Name: BS: Iraq...What next???
Subject: RE: BS: Iraq...What next???
This is the least bad I can imagine in, say, 2020:

The Kurdish region is incorporated into Turkey, forming, with the present Kurdish regions of Turkey, the Kurdistan Autonomous Region, formally under Turkish sovereignty, but with cultural autonomy guaranteed by the EU, which Turkey has joined.

The Shiite region is an Iranian protectorate, after Iran has had its revolution.

There is a Sunni rump state that no-one cares much about.

All of this is highly unlikely, and if it happened it wouldn't be a long-term solution, because partition of ethnic pest zones always leads eventually to irredentism & war. I submit, however, that all the likely alternatives are worse.