It's also somewhat discouraging to see the continuation of another Mudcat trend--vastly underestimating your opponents. The blithe--sometimes verging on smug--conviction that McCain will drop Palin soon has no basis in fact--it's just wishful thinking. London bookmakers' odds don't count as real evidence.

As I pointed out on the long VP thread just before Obama picked Biden, no matter who McCain picked he would have severe problems, since he had to do two contradictory things--solidify his base and reach out to independents at the same time.

However, anecdotal evidence suggests that with Palin he has the best chance to do both. Already the "Christian Right " is rallying behind her--and him. And at least 4 people who claim to be Hillary voters on the web are saying they will now vote for McCain--as a result of this pick. (Obviously on the web you never know if people are what they claim).


Why?   Several reasons.   She's actually wrestling with--perhaps making the wrong choices--some of the most serious problems a real US family has to make--not just talking about them.   Daughter pregnant at 17. Downs syndrome child. And the "Christian Right" sees her as actually living her faith--dealing with with these issues as a Christian should--not taking what they consider is the easy way out--in both cases.

Also, she is actually doing what so many on the other side talk about in politics--cracking down on corruption--in her own party, no less. For instance, look at her resignation from the oil and gas committee in January 2004, rather than countenance the unethical behavior she saw in that committee.

And her struggle against corruption in the Alaska Republican party is successful even--they say Alaska politics is littered with the carcasses of her opponents.   No wonder McCain likes her--on a smaller scale, she's far more successful than he is, doing what he would love to do.

This is of course why the trooper problem is so dangerous for her. But so far it appears she cannot be herself fingered. (We'll see what happens now--especially since there is now a hotline in Alaska for anybody with information on this issue).   And that is why the earlier attempt to claim there was a tape of her actually personally involved in firing Monehan was so crucial--and, it turns out, so clumsy. Mudcatters really have to start being more careful with facts--and start using more direct quotes.


Now I would guess that any real Hillary voter couldn't possibly support Palin--especially on the Roe v Wade issue and the health care issue--though we don't yet in detail know Palin's views on health care. It appears she is willing to slash it to ribbons for budgetary reasons, but we need more facts.

But Palin is a real mother, grappling with real issues mothers--and fathers--- across the US face. It's easy to caricature her views and make easy predictions McCain won't keep her.

I am totally against what McCain stands for-- in Iraq policy, health care, Roe v Wade, taxes, and environmental policy, etc. But I actually have a lot of respect for her--though there's a huge difference in doing what she is doing on her family's income--over $200, 000--and doing it on a real middle class income.

But I don't underestimate her--or McCain. Nor should other Mudcatters.