The "Downing Street Memo" Amos is a statement of opinion - Not Fact

The State Of the Union Address is written for the President not by him.

In the wake of the costliest attack on the American population on the mainland of America in assessing and evaluating the potential threat to the country, it would be deemed prudent to assess any threat in the light of what presents the "worst case" scenario. You would be failing in your duty to do anything other than that.

As to the war - Saddam Hussein could have prevented that simply by complying - He decided not to do that. By his own admission he said that he did everything in his power to make people, particularly the states neighbouring Iraq, believe that Iraq still possessed WMD.