Why not 90% while you're making up figures, bearded bruce? I suppose the point is 30% is a figure that sounds scary, but not crazy scary.

The only two countries with a history of conflict, both of which have nuclear weapons, are Pakistan and India. Neither have governments which are certifiably insane at present.

AS for Iran and Israel, there is no possibility of Iran having developed nuclear weapons by that time, even if they are trying to do so, for which the evidence is about as confidence-inspiring as the stuff about Saddam's WMDs.

There are frightening possibilities obviously, there always are. But I'd feel a whole lot safer with Obama in the White House rather than with McCain. Or, God forbid, Sarah Palin. (And I see that General Colin Powell thinks the same.)