The Mudcat Café TM
Thread #120511   Message #2622150
Posted By: GUEST,Donuel
30-Apr-09 - 04:12 PM
Thread Name: BS: Updates - swine flu WHO-CDC-NIH-HLS-HSS
Subject: RE: BS: Updates - swine flu WHO-CDC-NIH-HLS-HSS
Joe Biden on the Today Show said that he would advise his family not to be on trains and planes. They have been backpeddling ever since.
They say he meant to say "if sick do not go on trains and planes"
Expect more 'Joeisms to come" since he is known as a gaff master.

The White House press breifing told of one advance White House staffer who went to Mexico on April 13th, got sick on the 16th and returned on the 18th. He did give flu to his family who are all fine now.



Technically people do not die of the flu. The immune system can be tricked into an OVER RESPONSE and the effect of too much fever and too much protective fluid in the lungs can lead to a poor result. The other lethal factor is bacterial pnumonia getting a grip in already sore lungs after the flu is gone.

The CDC discussed best case worst case scenarios.
Worst case: is 30% of the world population gets the flu.
Best case: only 20% get this flu.
Worst case: The current flu mutates into some nastier form over this year.
Best Case: THe flu mutates into a non transmissible form for humans.
Worst case: the flu would be 1% fatal.
Best case: the flu would be .001% fatal.



Good news is that our modern health care system is probably able to limit fatalities by 50% to 80% even IF faced with a 1917 type nasty form of flu. We now have anti virals and great drugs to fight pneumonia as well as effective and rapid response to limit mass exposures.




PS

Speculation among experts is weighted to the idea that simple *access* to health care may be the difference between mild and severe cases but no objective evidence yet exists.
I agree that there is an irony that global public awarness and "scare" reporting never existed for something like AIDS which effect some DC neighborhoods at rates higher than South Africa.