Good post, Amos. I agree that "we are all shooting in the dark, extrapolating against our best efforts to imagine probabilities, through an unknown series of filters, emotional biases. and so on."

Indeed. That is the human condition, and it always has been. We all attempt to be ojective, we sincerely try to ascertain the truth, but we can't help but do so through our own set of filters and emotional biases. It's when people refuse to admit to their own fallibility in that sense that they get really unreasonable. I'm readily willing to admit to my fallibility in that sense...and I think you are too.