The course of the swine flu epidemic was predicted rather well.
It was thought to be more dangerous than it was because many mild cases in Mexico went unreported giving rise to concern that mortality was higher than it proved to be.
There was, and is, the concern that it could become more dangerous by mutation or exchange of genetic material with, for instance, the more lethal but less infectious bird flu.
But, that was a new disease. We know all about AIDS now.
Now Don, since you are not leaving, what do you have to contribute?