No, Rig, you cannot assume that Sarah will lose the vast majority of the independents.

It depends on large part on the economy.   If there is not a vast improvement from the current situation, President Obama will have serious problems--from any Republican, including Sarah. While abortion and gun rights may win Sarah the Republican nomination, independents mostly don't care about these.   So they won't be put off.   The question will be just how disgusted and annoyed at President Obama they are.   Independents, like most voters, will vote their pocketbooks--unless there is a hot war going on.

The model Sarah would be looking to, as I've mentioned more than once, will be 1980. Also, the midterms are likely to bring a debacle for Democrats-cutting their majorities while still leaving them in nominal control of both Houses. So gridlock will probably get worse for the last two years, but any Republican can-and will--still be able to make the argument that it's a Democratic House, Democratic Senate, and Democratic President--and nothing is getting done.

Then President Obama will have to run on that record.

If people don't feel better about their own economic condition--regardless of what statistics are quoted at them--they will be in a mood in 2012 to take it out on somebody. The obvious fallguy is the President.

Added to which, with Sarah as the first likely female president, she will likely have an edge with (non-liberal) women. She's already saying some of the right things: along the lines of "I'm just trying to bring my children up right--in a civilized country.".   That will resonate.





Re: independents:   it's true in the UK you don't have them, by and large. Party identification and party discipline there are far more significant.   In the US it's a joke--more every year, it seems. And you don't have the primary system in the UK--while in the US independents can often even vote in primaries--so there's virtually no downside to being an independent--not a member of any party.

And numbers of independents have been increasing hugely in recent years in the US. In Massachusetts, for instance, I understand over 50% of the electorate is independent.