Ron, I have an idea (perhaps just a hope) that a stronger contender than Sarah Palen will rise after the congressional elections, although she would receive votes of a large number of those angry with the slow recovery.
I agree that most of those loosely associated with the Tea Party and the "tenthers" will associate with the Republican Party; there is little likelihood that a third party will rise in the forseeable future.

I agree that the coming elections will see a strong Republican increase in congressional seats, obviously leading to deadlock on important issues, and Obama receiving much of the blame. He will be a one-term president.

As to who will lead the Republican Party in 2012-